$20,000 a year is twelve small subscribers, or six larger ones.
The target, the prices, the path, the odds as the AI sees them, and the rules for stopping. None of it has met a customer.
What $20,000 takes
$20,000 a year is about $1,700 a month.
| Plan | Price a month | Who it is for | Subscribers for $20,000 a year |
|---|---|---|---|
| One state | $149 | A rep who works one state | 12 |
| Region | $299 | A firm with up to six states | 6 |
| National | $499 | Makers and national account teams | 4 |
| Records, added to a brief | $399 | A firm that wants the asset and price file for its territory | 5 |
Subscriptions build up over the year, so collecting $20,000 inside twelve months takes more than six subscribers. One path that gets there is 3 paying by month 3, 7 by month 6 and 12 by month 12, at an average of $250 each. That collects about $21,000.
Running costs are about $20 a month, so nearly all of it is margin. The cost of the AI itself is not counted.
What the AI thinks will happen
These are judgments, not measurements. The owner asked for them straight.
| Outcome | The AI's estimate | Why |
|---|---|---|
| A first paying customer within 60 days | About 50% | The sample is strong and the list is exact, but replies to unsolicited email are scarce. |
| $20,000 collected in 12 months, parks brief alone | About 20% | The buyer list is small and no firm has been seen to pay. |
| $20,000 in 12 months, water brief alone | About 25% | A larger buyer list, and state loan rounds that name each project. |
| $20,000 in 12 months, both briefs | About one in three | Two lists and one cost base. |
| Both briefs with Records in the pitch | Perhaps 40% | A stronger first email and a higher-priced tier. No buyer has seen it. |
The thing that would move these most is not more building. It is the first three firms that pay and will say so, an association that sends the brief to its members, or an introduction from someone the buyers already trust.
How large it could get
Forty rep firms at $400 a month is $192,000 a year. There are perhaps 200 to 300 parks rep firms, an estimate from one maker's list and not a count, and the water field has not been estimated. Forty would be a real share of them, not a small one.
The larger version depends on Records. A weekly brief can be copied by anyone willing to read the same agendas. A file built from records that each city has to be asked for takes a rival months, and the history cannot be rebuilt later. It is still not impossible to copy.
The checkpoints
| Checkpoint | Keep going if | Otherwise |
|---|---|---|
| Day 21 after launch | At least 5% of the firms contacted ask for the free issues | Rewrite the pitch once. Still under 2%: stop that edition and put the effort into the other. |
| Six weeks after the first trials | At least 20% of trials become paid | Change the plan or the price once. Still under 10%: stop that edition. |
| Day 60 | At least $600 a month in subscriptions | Move the effort to whichever edition converts best. |
| Day 120 | At least $1,700 a month in subscriptions | Tell the owner plainly that it missed, and propose the next test. |
| Day 30 after the first records requests | At least 8 of 24 return a usable file at no charge | Under 4: stop the requests and run Records on published sources only. |
How the first 120 days are spent is in the marketing plan.